Selection Sunday is still a month away, but even so, the top 5 or 6 seed lines look like they are becoming pretty solid. The top 9 or 10 teams have established themselves as elite — it might just be me, but it feels like there have been fewer upsets of top teams this season. The teams below that group have also built up solid records and some impressive wins, and it’s hard to see any of those teams tumbling too far down the seed line. This also means that the bubble is as soft as it’s ever been. I have some teams as much as five games under .500 in conference play are currently getting in the tournament! We’ll see if the Committee ends up making this a reality, or if some intriguing mid-major schools who don’t win their conference tourneys will get a chance, but for now it makes for some very difficult decisions on the last few spots in the field.
FYI, a lot of websites that show conference standings simply tiebreak by overall record. I break ties by head-to-head record, which is why Liberty gets the Atlantic Sun auto bid over Lipscomb, and Bowling Green gets the MAC bid over Buffalo. This ultimately won’t matter when the conference tournaments are played, but right now it does bump a couple teams off the bracket that might have been in the last four in.
PDF with teams in regions: 2019_02_18 bracket
1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga
2 seeds: Kentucky, Michigan St., Michigan, North Carolina
3 seeds: Kansas, Houston, LSU, Marquette
4 seeds: Nevada, Purdue, Texas Tech, Wisconsin
5 seeds: Iowa St., Villanova, Louisville, Maryland
6 seeds: Virginia Tech, Mississippi St., Florida St., Cincinnati
7 seeds: Kansas St., Iowa, Buffalo, Auburn
8 seeds: Ole Miss, Texas, Washington, NC State
9 seeds: Wofford, Baylor, TCU, St. John’s
10 seeds: Ohio St., Syracuse, Seton Hall, Florida
11 seeds: Clemson, Oklahoma, Nebraska (play-in), Lipscomb (play-in), Alabama (play-in), Minnesota (play-in)
12 seeds: Liberty, Hofstra, New Mexico St., Belmont
13 seeds: Vermont, Yale, Davidson, Old Dominion
14 seeds: UC Irvine, Bowling Green, Texas St., South Dakota St.
15 seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Radford, Missouri St.
16 seeds: Bucknell, Sam Houston St., Prairie View A&M (play-in), Norfolk St. (play-in), St. Francis (PA) (play-in), Canisius (play-in)
Last four in: Nebraska, Lipscomb, Alabama, Minnesota
First four out: Arizona St., Indiana, VCU, Utah St.
Next four out: Creighton, UCF, Temple, Furman